It’s gettin’ hot in here!

It is getting hotter and hotter day. Climate models and predictions suggest that the Philippines m

ay experience more dry days and will experience lesser rainfall this year. This means that the summer months may become drier in Ilocos Norte and your “not so typical” hot days could hit an average of 35 to 37 degrees Celsius.

The country’s hottest temperature in history was recorded in Tuguegarao, Cagayan at 42.2C on May 11, 1969 according to PAGASA. General Santos city recorded 38C last week. Last year, Ilocos Norte’s heat index would trend at around 37 to 40C on dry months. This week AccuWeather.com forecasted that Laoag heat index will be 33C this week and the next with lesser precipitation and wind. The weather app also forecasted that Laoag could hit 36C to 40c this month of May. The nightly real feel I anticipate could be around 25C to 27C. 

Looking at these data and considering some assumptions, the lesson that we must all consider is that the greatest hits in climate history could be our normal days in the years ahead and that Ilocos Norte has a chance of becoming the country’s if not the region’s leading climate reality “hotspot”.

The very, very warm May-June months could expose Ilocos Norte to several climate-related health risks.  A WHO study suggests that extreme heat contributes directly to deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. The forecasted Ilocos-Laoag City heat index can trigger an increase in occupational heat related exposures and fatalities like heatstroke, heat exhaustion, asthma, hypertension, allergies, heat cramps among others.

The direct costs damage to health of heat-related illnesses in Ilocos Norte (personal and institutional cost) excluding coping cost are huge and may significantly impact local spending and economy, productivity, poverty thresholds, water and power rates, etc. Of course, the trauma that it brings to people, families and workplaces can be severe if we quantify the social, economic and environmental cost of heat-related risks and impacts.

Imagine the multitude of disruptions that occupational heat exposures make in daily life. Extreme heat exhaustion and stress could disrupt construction work, public transport (bus and tricycle drivers are mostly vulnerable to heat strokes, skin trauma, etc. during drier months.); it also exacerbates mental illness, harms agriculture and local food supply.

The urban poor, elders and children are the most vulnerable to excessive heat.

To mitigate and respond to the impacts, I suggest these five acts of leadership and social responsibility initiatives that persons and institutions—government, non-government and the private sector—might want to pursue to reduce the frequency of injuries and fatalities from heat exposure and prevent a heat related disabilities or death surge in the province:

1.       Physicians, private and public hospitals may adopt the concept of Physicians for Social Responsibility (PSR) project. They might want to bring their services for free or at a lower cost and target the urban poor, babies, elderlies and children as they are the most vulnerable to heat stress.  Accessibility to health education, training, services and health price index remains a perpetual concern.

2.      Suspend, put a moratorium or ban tree cutting in Laoag city, in the barangay and provincial roads and national highways.

3.      Encourage the private sector and companies to invest in green infrastructures, events and systems. Local government units may pass an ordinance that provide incentive and recognition to companies and corporations with carbon emission and energy efficiency targets, social and health initiatives to vulnerable communities and sectors in urban and rural areas.  Promote and invest in solar panels.

4.     Plant more trees and nurture them!

5.     The Laoag and the Ilocos Norte governments should explore the possibility of setting up a 2025 carbon emission local target and reduction agenda for the next several decades.

The urban poor must have some sort of access to cooling relief and air-conditioning facilities. The city and the province might want to install cooling systems for social welfare; for crisis rehab and post-disaster health recovery facilities. 

(Shermon Cruz works as a Climate Reality Leader at Climate Reality Project Philippines, a business continuity management specialist, a professional futurist and public administration professor at the Center for Engaged Foresight (CEF), a futures and strategic foresight innovation hub in the Philippines and the Asia Pacific. For more about his works and engagements, check www.engagedforesight.com or you may email him at engageforesight@gmail.com.)