Emerging cityscapes

(First of two parts)

What will the future of Philippine cities look like in 20 or 40 years’ time? A storm is brewing in Asia, will Philippine cities transcend beyond the narrative of trauma and disasters? Is there an alternative future for Philippine cities or would it learn from the past to innovate, act and create the preferred story? Are current strategies enough to transform our cities or do we need to question our assumptions now of continued economic growth and rethink our ways of knowing the city and change the way we imagine our cities and leadership from the big man rule, autocratic, corrupt and isolated to the fresh food market, pluralistic, democratic and participatory?

These are some of the questions that the participants of the UNESCO Resilient Cities, Brighter Futures workshop explored for four days. Using anticipatory thinking and strategic foresight methods, city leaders and experts, researchers, managers, advocates, social scientists and consultants from all over the country and the world  deconstructed and reconstructed Philippine city futures in a climate change driven era. 

The Laoag forum workshop is a part of a broader global foresight project launched by UNESCO and the Rockefeller Foundation this year on futures literacy and to introduce foresight to decision-making, public policy and governance. The initiative aims to help communities better prepare for the future by using anticipatory thinking and foresight methodologies and assist them to become future-literate.

Similar workshops have been held in Oslo Norway; Munich, Germany and Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.

The Laoag output will be presented to UNESCO Paris and UNESCO-Rockefeller Foundation organized strategic foresight conference this year. The organizers plan to publish and submit copies of the final report to the UNESCO National Commission of the Philippines, the Department of Interior and Local Government, Congress, the League of Philippines and the Office of the President, International Government and Non-Government agencies among others.

Reimagining Philippine cities 

To Sohail Inayatullah, notably one of the best futurists and city experts in the world right now, a fellow of the World Futures Studies Federation and the World Academy of Arts and Sciences and main speaker and facilitator of the Laoag edition of the UNESCO future lecture series and knowledge workshop, cities are fast emerging agents of global policy-making and change. 

And as cities faces multiple challenges like climate change, globalization and demographic shifts, Inayatullah argued that cities need to re-think itself in theory and practice, to be versatile and to be flexible enough for it to respond, innovate and usher in a new era.

Rigid concepts, models, priorities, worldviews and leadership practices of the city that leads to urban poverty, pollution, overcrowding, decay and decline must be questioned so that new city concepts, frameworks and urban experiences could emerge. To do this, Philippine cities should embark and perhaps invest more aggressively on urban regeneration projects that increases social, economic and community resilience. Population drifts from rural to urban are expected to rise and if cities fail to read the weak signals they might end up becoming or repeating the stories of Metro Manila, Baguio and Dagupan cities—living beyond 3,500% of sustainable levels, caught in the middle income trap and highly vulnerable to climatic changes and exposure. 

In Asia, it is projected that its urban population will double from 1.6 to 3 billion by 2050. Philippine cities have to face up to this emerging population and migration trends but how many of its cities will be able to meet the challenge?  Just imagine the social and economic cost of the ASEAN integration and climate change to an unprepared Philippine city. To be forewarned is to be forearmed. Simply put, if you know something beforehand, you can prepare for it. Being aware of the critical drivers and taking the big picture approach can help cities regenerate and transform amidst rapidly evolving challenges.

Strategies and metaphors to the transform the future

Using anticipatory methods, participants were able to re-imagine the contexts and purposes of Philippine cities in a post-Haiyan plus the ASEAN integration, the rise of Asia, Chindia, etc. scenario. 

New narratives, metaphors, images, strategies, policies and programs to achieve the preferred future Philippine cities were proposed. Cities are at the forefront of these solutions and innovations and when they happen it could accelerate inclusive growth, open up new value chains for innovation and better city living conditions.

The low hanging fruit was the Smart city. Improving the efficiency and effectiveness of urban systems, social cohesion, innovation, infrastructure, architecture, energy, transport, national and local governance and the participation of the media, academia and the non-profit sector was essential to creating the smart city. We have to be smart enough to see the intersection of all the drivers mentioned to create the smart city that we want. Changing the way we live, work and play in urban environments requires asking the unasked questions and integrate or choose the best tools like anticipatory thinking and foresight to urban planning and innovation.  Technology is a critical driver to this type of city. The metaphor was arangkada. Downside however was the tusong-matsing—a city trying to catch up with its neighbors, economic growth driven, smart but stupid. (To be concluded)