Power outages, oil dependence threaten PH energy security

The Philippines is becoming increasingly vulnerable to global fuel supply disruptions as crude oil imports become increasingly concentrated in the Middle East, while its power grid continues to face tightening reserves, according to a study presented by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS).

The findings come as the government moves to strengthen national energy security, including plans to establish a Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Presenting the findings of “How Energy Secure Is the Philippines?” PIDS senior research fellow Adoracion Navarro said the Philippines remains energy insecure despite improvements in energy efficiency.

“The short answer to how energy secure is the Philippines—we are insecure,” Navarro said.

The study assessed the country’s energy security across six dimensions that go beyond traditional measures: sufficiency, reliability, resilience, affordability, accessibility, and sustainability.

It found that fossil fuels still accounted for about 70% of the country’s total primary energy supply in 2024, while the country’s energy self-sufficiency ratio continued its long-term decline to around 45%.

Crude oil imports have become increasingly concentrated in the Middle East, with nearly all of the country’s crude supply now coming from the region, exposing the Philippines to geopolitical tensions and global price shocks.

The study points to growing strain on the country’s power system.

Although electricity demand continues to grow, reserve margins have steadily tightened because of aging power plants, transmission constraints, and grid congestion.

In 2024 alone, the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) was suspended 2,401 times due to red-alert conditions, highlighting the growing strain on the country's electricity system.

The study also found that the Philippines continues to have one of Southeast Asia's highest electricity prices, while many households still lack reliable access to electricity.

Despite these challenges, Navarro noted one encouraging trend: the Philippines has steadily improved its energy efficiency, with households and businesses using less energy for every unit of economic output than in previous years.

“Where the government needs more insights are our own risks and requisites, requirements, and hopefully our private sector stakeholders would be able to give insights to the government as well, like the necessary investments and policy challenges,” Navarro said.

In response, the Department of Energy (DOE) said many of the study’s recommendations are already being incorporated into the Philippine Energy Plan.

Marietta Quejada, supervising science research specialist at the DOE, said one of the government’s priority initiatives is the establishment of a Strategic Petroleum Reserve to strengthen the country’s preparedness against global supply disruptions.

She added that the DOE is studying measures such as increasing mandatory private-sector oil inventories and establishing government-controlled reserves to improve the country's emergency fuel buffer.

The DOE continues to pursue upstream resource development, smart grid modernization, household-based electrification, and its target of increasing the share of renewable energy in the power generation mix to 35% by 2030 and 50% by 2040.

“We plan to institutionalize the monitoring of energy security. Actually, the main goal for the Philippine Energy Plan is energy security,” Quejada said.

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC), meanwhile, said strengthening battery energy storage systems will be critical as renewable energy capacity expands.

ERC market operations service director Sharon Ocampo-Montañer said the challenge is no longer simply generating more solar power. Instead, the country needs sufficient battery storage to capture excess daytime generation and use it during periods of peak evening demand, when red alerts are more likely to occur.

“If we have batteries—enough batteries—we could shift this overgeneration to the evening peak. So, I think flexibility will be a big challenge when we push for more renewable energy,” she said.

From the private sector, First Gen Corporation vice president and head of strategy and planning Jay Joel Soriano said the country's energy transition should focus not only on expanding renewable energy but also on developing indigenous resources capable of providing reliable 24/7 electricity.

He described geothermal energy as one of the country's strategic advantages because it provides continuous, weather-independent power while reducing dependence on imported fuels.

“By combining the state’s power to de-risk exploration, and the private sector’s speed, capital, and operational efficiency, we can transition from a vulnerable, import-dependent grid to an indigenous, secure, and green energy economy,” he said.

Held during the PhilEnergy Expo 2026, the forum brought together policymakers, regulators, industry leaders, and researchers to examine policy and investment priorities to ensure that the country’s shift toward cleaner energy also delivers affordable, reliable, resilient, and secure electricity for Filipino consumers. (PIDS)