A
battery of scientific researches concluded
that climate change impacts, natural disruption for that matter, are increasing
in frequency and scale.
The social, environmental,
economic and political consequences of improbable but high impact events to
communities—the barangay in particular—are amplified by lack of funding,
skills, capacity, technology, crisis management plan and network to mitigate,
adapt, respond and bounce back from a piercing climate-propelled disaster.
The lack of concern for
safety, current culture and perception of risk, the perceived lack of
discipline and sincerity in disaster and emergency management drills magnifies
potential vulnerabilities in the barangay. These gaps only elevate the impacts
of “plain as the nose on your face” types of disasters such as earthquake,
monsoonal flooding, droughts, vector-borne diseases, etc.
Mapping the bigger picture,
the number of casualties, the amount of damage and people affected have been
piling up decade by decade. An analysis suggests that natural disasters have
cost the country around US$1.9 billion or PHP90 billion in economic damages in
2015 and that 3.83 million people were affected by natural hazards. The direct cost from natural disasters
experts’ notes threatens socio-economic growth at the macro and micro levels.
As to impacts to food and the
agricultural sector, agricultural scientists predicts that total crop
production will be 4% lower by 2050 and that food prices may increase by
20-30%. The International Food Policy Institute concluded that climate change
impacts to the agricultural sector alone may cost the Philippine economy PHP26
billion per year through 2050.
Now what should the
provincial government do to anticipate, prepare better and mitigate the impacts
of abnormal weather patterns to social, economic and political life? We’ve seen
the impacts of severe droughts and hunger in Kidapawan that led to riots
resulting to the death of some protesting farmers and families? In what ways
can the provincial, city and municipal governments of Ilocos Norte mitigate the
risks and impacts of a ridiculous Padsan River do a Cagayan De Oro-like
flooding? Or as my former students of political science and public
administration in their futures studies course at Northwestern University,
anticipated a tsunami-like event in Laoag in the year 2030? Or in a black
elephant scenario (potentially obvious but frequently ignored) a pandemic
disaster? and so forth and so on.
Ilocos Norte like some
provinces in the North are exposed to emerging and black swan climate-induced
disasters. While in paper Laoag is the least vulnerable city on climate change
impacts, extreme climate disasters can just hit you right in the face.
Disasters by the word of it are sudden event or natural catastrophes that
causes great damage to life and property and yes liberty too.
Local governments must
explore, innovate and institutionalize what works and adopt perhaps effective
and well-tested indicators like barangay-based disaster resiliency index, plans
and approaches to crisis and disaster recovery management. LGUs should invest
on people and technology to ensure that we have the rights skills and means to
respond from unusual disasters. Crisis and disaster management is a moral and
political imperative and the barangay in actual disaster scenario are the first
responders and the operations arm of municipal, city and provincial disaster
management councils. Thus we need to engage them actively and deeply and gear
them with the appropriate and updated knowledge and tools to respond and cope
up with disasters quickly. A barangay disaster-based resiliency index is one
amongst many approaches that might work to contextualize a micro-geographic
approach to risk analysis and assessment.
(Shermon Cruz works as a Climate Reality Leader at
Climate Reality Project Philippines, a business continuity management planner
and a professional futurist at the Center for Engaged Foresight (CEF), a
futures and strategic foresight innovation hub in the Philippines and the Asia
Pacific. For more about his works and engagements, check www.engagedforesight.com or you may
email him at engageforesight@gmail.com.)
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