It’s now official: the El Nino dry and hot weather will
continue to bring drought and dry spells until summer.
Recent observations show that the
sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific are still beyond
1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than the average, indicating a “strong El Nino
event”, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA) declared yesterday.
The El Nino weather is “likely to
persist until the second quarter of 2016,” said Dr. Vicente B. Malano, PAGASA Administrator.
“The adverse impacts include below normal rainfall that could lead to a dry
spell and drought conditions in many parts of the country until the first half
of 2016.”
PAGASA defines “drought”, in the
weather sense, as three consecutive months when more than 60 percent reduction
from the average has been observed. Drought also occurs when five consecutive
months of below normal rainfall (21 percent to 60 percent reduction from
average) has been observed.
A dry spell occurs when below normal
rainfall (21 percent to 60 percent reduction from average) have been observed
for three consecutive months or when two consecutive months of way below normal
rainfall (more than 60 percent reduction from average) occur.
“El Nino is still there and its
impacts will continue,” Dr. Malano said in a press briefing, adding that hotter
or “warmer than normal” air temperatures are likely to be felt.
In response, “PAGASA started cloud
seeding operations over Angat Dam even before the two typhoons hit in
December,” said Dr. Landrico U. Dalida Jr., PAGASA Deputy Administrator for
Operations, adding P79 million has been appropriated for cloud seeding. “We
have shifted cloud seeding now to Mindanao and the Visayas which are suffering
from drought.”
A strong El Nino will delay the
start of the rainy season, coming in July instead of June this year, said
Anthony Lucero, head of PAGASA’s Climate Information Monitoring and Prediction
Section.
The monsoon rains will be weak to
the point that rainfall will be “below normal”, extending the dry
season, he said. However, despite the dry weather, two to six tropical cyclones
may develop or enter the Philippines from now until June, he added.
Already, Mindanao and the Visayas
have had very little rains, said Dr. Flaviana D. Hilario, PAGASA Deputy
Administrator for Research and Development. The “below normal” rains prior to
November observed nationwide was interrupted with above normal rains in Luzon
in December, especially after typhoons Nona and Onyok occurred in December.
“The El Nino expected to will remain
strong until February with the probability of below normal rainfall expected
from January to April, leading to drought in 68 provinces by the end of April,”
said Lucero. “Slightly warmer than average temperature is expected during the
period.”
The strong El Nino was first
observed in mid-July 2015, growing into a very strong El Nino in November.
The chances are “favorable for El
Nino gradually decreasing from May to July,” Lucero said. The Northeast
Monsoon season experienced from January to March will transition to
the Southwest Monsoon and will bring local thunderstorms and
tropical cyclones from April to June, he said.
Still, 20 percent will likely
experience drought 16 provinces, he said. By the end of February, 36 percent of
the country affecting 29 provinces will experience drought until the end of
February, he said.
By the end of March, 44 provinces
(42 percent of the country) will experience drought and dry spells. By the end
of April, 85 percent of the country, affecting 68 provinces, will experience
drought.
The start of the rainy season by the
end of May will bring down to just 34 the number of provinces that will
experience drought. By the end of June, 18 provinces will continue to have
drought. (SciencePhilippines)
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