Reality check

Next door Hong Kong is, for many Filipinos, a shopping excuse that is just a two hours flight away.

But the decision by China to restrict voting reforms for the former Crown colony set back the cause of free democratic elections. Effects will ripple out beyond those shopping malls.

The National People’s Congress Standing Committee  decision drew battle lines in what pro-democracy groups  say is  a deepening confrontation over Hong Kong’s  political future—and of China, the New York Times notes.

It clamped procedural barriers on candidates for the city’s leader’s post. These would ensure Beijing remained the gatekeeper to that position—and to political power over the city.

What does that mean for those next door to Hong Kong, specially the Asean countries?

The move shuts off dissent. Under President Xi Jinping, China is pressing its offensive in Hong Kong, “Beijing has chosen a showdown with a protest movement unlike any it has ever faced on the mainland.”

Protestors assert that the curbs set by Beijing for selection of the chief executive, made a mockery of the “one person, one vote” principle that had been promised to Hong Kong.

“After having lied to Hong Kong people for so many years, it finally revealed itself,” said Alan Leong, a pro-democracy legislator. “Hong Kong people are right to feel betrayed. “

“We are no longer willing to be docile subjects,” added Benny Tai, a co-founder of Occupy Central and an associate professor of law at the University of Hong Kong. “Our hope is Hong Kong has entered a new era, an era of civil disobedience.”

Perhaps, one of the more   insightful commentators is the British Broadcasting Corporation’s China editor: Carrie Gracie. Here is a recap of her take on the issue:

“The Chinese government decided that facing down a campaign of civil disobedience, in the short term, is preferable to allowing Hong Kong a political process which might create meaningful challenges to its own authority in the long term.

Beijing left no room for compromise. It insisted all candidates must secure more than 50% support from a nominating body it controls.

This unyielding line is part of a wider political picture.  Under the leadership of Xi Jinping, China itself moved further against any suggestion of democratic reform. The Communist Party today is ever more entrenched in its monopoly on power.

Hong Kong remains the only place where Chinese citizens can criticize the one party-state or commemorate the Tiananmen democracy protests of 1989.  Free speech and freedom of assembly in the former British colony already stretch Beijing's patience thin.

Still, it seeks to avoid appearances of   reneging from the promise of direct elections in 2017. But it decided—not to risk the emergence of a leader who might confront its own interests outright.

This is the way the Chinese government prefers to do its politics.  Beijing espouses market competition in some areas of the economy, it wishes to send a message throughout China that no such principle should apply in politics.

Thus, a familiar defensive—and xenophobic—strain is emerging in the Chinese narrative surrounding the Hong Kong issue.

An article in the Communist People's Daily said that some in Hong Kong were colluding with outside forces. “Not only are they undermining Hong Kong's stability and development, but they're also attempting to turn Hong Kong into a bridgehead for subverting and infiltrating the Chinese mainland.”

It's hard to assess how many people in Hong Kong or elsewhere in China actually believe this. Many argue instead that Hong Kong's success has been built on its cosmopolitan society and international focus.

The Hong Kong government has thrown in its lot with Beijing. Chief Executive Leung Chun-Ying said, “Mainstream Hong Kong society” agreed with Beijing on how electoral reform should proceed.

In the opposing camp, the Occupy Central movement has warned the battle for hearts and minds will now begin in earnest. “By refusing to trust the voters of Hong Kong to make free choices, Beijing may now have triggered the emergence of the “chaotic society” it was so keen to avoid, Gracie thinks.

The Hong Kong protest movement plans to launch a civil-disobedience campaign in October 1 to protest Beijing's decision.  Some shaved their heads as a pledge to non-violent resistance

This coincides with the weeklong holiday around China's National Day on Oct. 1—traditionally one of the biggest shopping weeks of the year in Hong Kong, when a lot of mainlanders visit the city.

Wall Street Journal, however, tracked “a loss of momentum following   announcement of the Chinese decision on Aug. 31. This is proving to be a reality check for a movement that has tried to rally a city focused on stability and whose bottom line is: What is in it for us?”

Shoppers can buy anything in Hong Kong. Well, almost anything—except freedom.