Combining climate adaptation, mitigation could cut farm emissions by 18%, PIDS study

 

Combining climate adaptation with measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions could cut projected emissions from Philippine agriculture by 18% over 2025–2045, while helping the sector become more resilient and productive, according to a study by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS).

The study, “Culprit and Victim: Scenarios for Philippine Agriculture amidst Climate Change,” by PIDS senior research fellow Roehlano Briones and former PIDS supervising research specialist Ivory Myka Galang, examines how Philippine agriculture could respond to climate change under three scenarios: continuing current trends, strengthening adaptation, and combining adaptation with mitigation.

Using a computable general equilibrium model, the study assesses the potential effects of these pathways on agricultural productivity, consumption, and GHG emissions.

Under the combined adaptation-and-mitigation scenario, agricultural GHG emissions are projected to decline by 18% over the 2025–2045 projection period.

The study attributes the reduction to the addition of targeted mitigation measures—including carbon sequestration practices, manure management, and emissions-reducing technologies—to adaptation efforts.

The findings also show why adaptation and mitigation need to be pursued together. Agricultural GHG emissions are projected to increase by 24 %, under the reference scenario and by 29% under the adaptation scenario.

The higher emissions under adaptation are associated with increased agricultural activity resulting from productivity gains.

The study finds that climate adaptation can generate economic benefits for the agricultural sector. Under the adaptation scenario, government spending on climate adaptation could help agricultural GVA grow 0.38 percentage points faster.

This suggests that climate action can support agricultural growth while addressing the sector’s vulnerability to climate risks. However, the authors note that gains may not be distributed evenly across agricultural subsectors.

Agriculture faces a dual challenge in addressing climate change. It is highly vulnerable to climate-related shocks while also contributing significantly to the country’s GHG emissions.

The sector accounts for about 23% of the country’s GHG emissions and suffered an average of PHP 44 billion in annual property damage from natural disasters from 2012 to 2022, accounting for 60% of the country’s disaster-related property damage.

The study therefore emphasizes that climate action in agriculture should protect the sector’s capacity to produce food and support livelihoods while also reducing its environmental footprint.

The study identifies improved water management in rice fields and better management of livestock waste as promising avenues for reducing agricultural emissions.

In rice production, Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) can reduce methane emissions associated with continuously flooded rice fields. The study models a 40-percent reduction in GHG emissions from rice production through AWD. The approach can also conserve water without compromising rice yields.

Figure 3 shows two sets of climate maps of the Philippines under a medium-range emission scenario for 2020 and 2050 based on PAGASA’s projection.

For livestock, improved manure management—including technologies such as biogas digesters—can reduce emissions and convert animal waste into a potential energy source.

These measures are particularly relevant because rice cultivation is the largest source of agricultural GHG emissions. The study identifies rice cultivation, followed by enteric fermentation and manure management, as the leading sources of agricultural emissions.

The authors recommend strengthening climate adaptation measures for crops, livestock, and fisheries. They also call for better information on the sources of agricultural emissions and greater support for technologies that reduce emissions without harming farm productivity.

The authors recommend strengthening climate adaptation measures for crops, livestock, and fisheries, while improving information on the sources of agricultural emissions and expanding support for technologies that reduce emissions without compromising productivity.

The study also emphasizes the need to support farmers, particularly small farmers, in adopting climate-resilient and low-emission technologies. Such support can help ensure that climate action does not undermine agricultural competitiveness or food security.

The study notes that although agriculture has not committed to an unconditional emissions-reduction target, an estimated 211 million metric tons of CO2-equivalent reductions could be achieved through various policies and measures, including AWD, renewable energy, improved livestock manure management, and precision agriculture.

Ultimately, the findings point to an approach to climate action that treats adaptation and mitigation not as competing priorities but as complementary investments in the future of Philippine agriculture.

By combining measures that help farmers withstand climate shocks with technologies that reduce emissions, the Philippines can pursue agricultural growth that is more resilient, productive, and sustainable. (PIDS)