Are we prepared for the ‘Big One’?

Is Ilocos Norte prepared for a black swan event? If yes, how prepared are we? If not, to borrow the words of Ivana Milojevic, a professor at the University of Sunshine Coast Australia, should we be alarmed or should we be very alarmed? 

Last month, I tried to make sense of Naseem Nicholas Talem black swan theory and tried to situate the province to anticipate some outlier events. I gave some examples but a few or perhaps more ideas of extreme outliers could emerge if it will crowdsource or brainswarm the notion of expecting the unexpected. 

As of late, there has been a surge of interest from insurance and risk management companies, banks and local governments in the US, Malaysia, Taiwan and Australia on black swan events. The Asia Development Dialogue had a two-day conference last year to explore “emerging issues” in natural disasters. In fact, a number of white papers were published and most of them reported a rising occurrence of the highly improbable events.  

The Sangguniang Panlalawigan, the Office of the Governor and the Provincial Disaster Coordinating Council could initiate a workshop, a public hearing, a lecture-forum, etc. to discuss black swans and ask these questions: Is Ilocos Norte prepared for a/the wildcard event? What can and should we do to prepare and mitigate the effects of extreme outliers and respond in a post-disaster scenario?  

Here, I would like to ponder on the possibility of black swan types of earthquakes and tsunamis hitting the province. My aim here is not to predict the future or to predict when and how it will occur but to anticipate the plausibility of outliers and the dangers of unlikely disasters.

Last week, a 5.7 magnitude quake rattled Ilocos Norte and more aftershocks are expected to occur according to seismologists. The epicenter was located in Burgos and the quake was felt in Pasuquin, Sarrat, San Nicolas, Laoag and Paoay. 

Now, if we were to apply Taleb’s black swan theory here we may consider the recent earthquake as an early warning signal to prepare ourselves for the big one or for the many “big ones”—earthquake with tsunamis and their consequential impacts in a post-disaster scenario like massive unemployment, violence, pandemic, or something similar or even worst to Tacloban or Bohol black swan events.  

If we were to exploit the tremors “shock effect”, local government units and other sectors should, by now, mobilize a multi-sectoral effort to prepare Ilocos Norte for the big one.  If we could spend millions of pesos for the Tan-Ok festival, the province should triple its support and investments to create, organize and equip volunteer-based emergency response teams, province-wide drills, etc. to strengthen the capacities (soft and hard) and capability of publics and communities to react, withstand and recover from black swan events. More ideas and solutions could emerge if the private and public sectors collaborate in hosting these events to increase public awareness and engagements in disaster preparedness and response. I have always been an advocate of multi-sectoral organizing to strengthen the capability of governments to respond to real-disaster situations. 

The Philippines in particular Ilocos Norte had experienced frequent seismic activities recently and it wouldn’t hurt if we were to ask what if types of questions like: what if a 7.0, 8.0 or 9.0 earthquake hit Ilocos Norte? Will the aftershocks generate a mega-quake or an orphan tsunami? What if this earthquake launches a Japan-like tsunami and hit Pasuquin, Bacarra, Laoag, Currimao and Badoc and rushes all the way to Ilocos Sur, La Union and Pangasinan? What if, in a post-disaster scenario a social breakdown, chaos or a disease pandemic occur?  Should we expect the Aquino administration to respond as expected or will the national government ignore us just like what they did in Tacloban? Will our off-the-shelf work plan work in a gigantic shock scenario? Or will it be wiser for us to anticipate every conceivable outcome? Are black swan events or scenarios a waste of time and money? How should we prepare and adapt to the possibility of such extreme cases like earthquake plus tsunami plus pandemic occur? Should we include black swans (low probable, high consequence hazards) in our hazard assessments? These questions may be significant given that we are located in the Pacific seismic-belt. Wiki notes that 90% of the world’s largest earthquakes occur along the Ring of Fire. 

Five years ago, in Southern California, around 5,000 emergency responders participated in the biggest emergency drill in the US and the world. The Shake Out project pondered the effects of a 7.8 magnitude earthquake on the San Andreas Fault. The group mobilized and trained communities to create detailed drill scripts, drill broadcast recordings and simulated what if and what will happen when the Big One comes scenarios to the public. They urged communities to participate in the big effort to mitigate possible damages and more importantly to save lives. Today, the Shake Out initiative is the largest state sponsored emergency response exercise in the West. The alliance of many organizations was crucial to the effort and just now, its website reported having 9 million participants in the latest Big Shake Out drills. 

Will our province embrace uncertainty or will we make excuses after the fact?