Betting odds

Suppose you had 364 million bucks to burn. No. Top that to a billion pesos instead. How would you blow that? Don’t ask Imelda and Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

The Supreme Court, this week, “affirmed with finality its 2012 ruling forfeiting P1.8 billion, stashed in the Panamanian corporation Arelma. In 1972, President Ferdinand Marcos secretly deposited US$2 million. That ballooned into over US$40 million today. Ferdinand Jr. and Imelda claimed that as their own.  That belongs to Juan Q. Taxpayer, the court affirmed.

Government, meanwhile, plans to bankroll a billion pesos, through Department of Environment and Natural Resources, for mangrove replanting. That will be a building block in efforts to rise from Supertyphoon Yolanda ruins

Mangroves are among are among most productive of ecosystems that Providence lavished. Worldwide, they sprawl over 15.2 million hectares of tropical coasts.  They are habitats for wide varieties of fish and plants and buffer against storms.

“A mangrove stand of 30 trees per 0.01 hectare with a depth of 100 m can reduce the destructive force of a tsunami by up to 90%.” They act as carbon sinks too. 

But they’re also in rapid decline, warns Wetland International.  

Globally, half of all mangrove forests have been lost since the mid-20th century. The Philippines loses about 39 hectares of mangroves per day, estimates marine biologist K. Katherson. Until Yolanda, most local governments razed mangroves or paved them with concrete.  

Except in Palawan, Surigao, Samar and Leyte, extensive   mangrove belts have disappeared. In southern Bohol, they have made a startling comeback, reports FAO Regional Forester Patrick Durst.

Villages from Eastern Samar to Negros Oriental, however were “buffered by sturdy mangrove stands,” notes Dr. Jurgene Primavera in an earlier report. Time magazine earlier named her among the world’s top 100 environmental scientists.  She is  Pew Fellow in Marine Conservation and Chief Mangrove Scientific Advisor for the  Zoological Society of London

Greenbelts are mandated by Presidential Decree No. 705 and the 1998 Fisheries Code. But non-compliance resulted in a graveyard of “dead laws.” Replace inutile greenbelt stipulations stashed in forgettable sections of unenforced regulations, Primavera urges. Enact a National Greenbelt Law.

Primavera with a team of NGO members-scientists completed early April a post Yolanda assessment of mangroves. “In Leyte and Eastern Samar, mangroves mostly sustained partial or minimal to no damage at all. Most are recovering, as seen by shoots on once defoliated trees, as well as seed and saplings present.

“They need no new planting, only protection”, the team concluded. “After all they are bioshields and damage-cum-recovery is par for their course.” This was underscored by resilient mangroves in Guian, Quinapondan and, Hernani of Samar and Palompon with Merida in Leyte. Enrichment planting could close gaps in partially damaged areas.

“Our survey documented probably 100-200 hectares in 13 municipalities plus one city, where mangroves were totally wiped out. Totally damaged mangroves or: bakhaw plantations occurred in Bantayan and, Maliwaliw Island, Guiuan.

In Ormoc, illegal mangrove into fishpond conversion is rampant. “For ecological stability, a, 4:1 mangrove-pond ratio is needed. The present ratio is only 1:1. There is critical need for planting for protection against storms that will come more frequently in the future.

Throwing money at a problem is risky. Many are cash-starved survivors, who could clear recovering but inconspicuous mangrove stands. That’d enable a number to dip into the “Cash-for- Work” scheme.

Primavera and fellow scientists say it is imperative to share the on-the-ground findings with decision-makers before that one billion bucks is released. As currently drafted, the DENR plan   will anchor post-Haiyan mangrove rehabilitation program on good intentions without being grounded in science.

“We are presently drafting: (1) Criteria for Mangrove Damage and Recovery Assessment, and (b) Guidelines for Mangrove Cleaning, both for people’s organizations and scientific groups. A post- Yolanda Workshop II for other local stakeholders is scheduled for 13-14 May 2014 in Tacloban City.

A “Call To Action” earlier was issued by a University of the Philippines workshop on “Mapping Yolanda’s Impact on Philippine Mangroves: Impacts and Recovery” late March.

It is a race to see how 364 million bucks. No. Top that to a billion pesos instead—can be put to good use or wasted. What are the odds for the scientists—and Mr. Juan Q. Taxpayer?