(First of a series)
Two weeks
ago I was invited by Mr. Moncito Hinay, project director of the World Wildlife
Fund, to attend the National Competitiveness Council Forum organized by the
Department of Trade and Industry held at the Plaza Del Norte Convention Center.
The WWF presented the latest report on business risk assessment and management
of climate change impacts on 12 Philippine cities. Their study tried to look 30
years into the futures of Philippine cities, their hopes, fears and changes
that might occur in a climate-change driven era.
Like some of the locals, I was more
interested on the results of WWF’s three vector analysis (climate environmental
exposure, socio-economic sensitivity and adaptive capacity) and scenarios for
the City of Laoag. While I was able to read the report beforehand, it was still
awesome to hear Monci discussing some of the reasons why Laoag was the least
vulnerable Philippine city to climate change impacts.
If there would have been some rankings on
the most ‘liveable city’ in the Philippines today, Laoag, I bet, would have
topped the rankings. Also, Laoag could emerge as a model on how Philippine
cities should be situated, if I may, in the post-normal times or “the in
between period where old orthodoxies are dying and new ones have not yet
emerged and nothing really makes sense” to quote Zia Sardar.
More importantly, the report writes, “Laoag City illustrates
how a city can be much easier to take forward, when things are kept at a
manageable scale” and “Laoag scores high as the city with the lowest total
population and the lowest population growth rate, human development index and
functional literacy among all eight cities”.
While some of us may say or might even conclude that
we are safe and secure at least and that we could afford to have some sleepfull
nights or perhaps unwind in a post-Haiyan era, there are, I would like to
anticipate, some emerging issues or seeds of change that are growing from the
periphery and that might disrupt or surprise Laoagueños in the immediate
future. In a post-normal era, nothing is really definite, truly guaranteed or
totally safe to paraphrase a colleague.
And if I were to “unpack” the future of the city
now, these questions must be imperative for new strategic and policy
conversations to emerge like how can we sustain the gains of past and present
historical trends and make the city more resilient against climate change
impacts? What short term and long term
initiatives can we do or must undertake to prepare for, withstand to, recover
and emerge stronger from sudden shifts of climate change and surprises like
freak supertyphoons and heavy rains spawned by tropical depressions? Are there
any other plausible surprises that could shock Laoag in the future?
Then, I saw something that was really significant in
the WWF report. In fact, their report, they were able to spot on, merely
reiterated an old but a resurging and recurring issue. Laoag might have, I
guess, overlooked this issue. This concern has been noted and acknowledged in
past reports funded and commissioned by regional, private and national
government agencies but mostly discussed only in local universities,
construction and engineering reports and climate conferences.
If this problem is continually neglected it could
create certain multiple risks to the city and the people of Laoag. And if the
gloomy scenarios were to occur today (as anticipated in previous reports) it
could damage a large number of communities, properties and investments in the
municipalities of Sarrat, Dingras, Solsona and San Nicolas.
Just imagine the first, second and third order of
consequences of a traumatized Padsan River and the impacts of future
river-induced flooding to the city and its nearby municipalities.
(To be continued)
For more about my work on
futures thinking, social and strategic foresight check engagedforesight.com
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