Political landscape altered

By Alfredo C. Garvida Jr.

Contributor

We are STILL 26 months away from the 2016 elections but the political spectrum this early is now pounded by varied speculations as to who will run with whom in the next presidential and vice presidential races. Sen. Allan Peter Cayetano's fresh declaration of his intention to run for president has altered the Philippine political landscape, but his declaration was not surprising though given his commendable showing in the last senatorial race—he placed third, beating even the erstwhile highly regarded Chiz Escudero—and his good public rating from what appears to be based on his oral performances in senate proceedings, especially against his mortal enemy that is Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile.

The next presidential race is now shaping up as a four-cornered fight among Vice President Jejomar Binay, DILG Sec. Mar Roxas, Cayetano and Sen. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos. If public acceptance survey ratings were the barometer to the voters' preference among these gentlemen, Binay is the prohibitive winner. 

We have to analyze deeper, however, why the Vice President seems to be the highest rated among the four. First of all, the survey moguls are trying to compare President Aquino and Binay in public acceptance ratings, where the latter enjoys better preference. But Aquino, as the president, is the center of the nation's focus, that every decision he makes—and even his personal life—are inescapable from the public eye, while Binay is idly sitting in his chair, doing nothing for the public to scrutinize. For whatever its worth, Binay's high rating seems to be validating Albert Einstein’s words, "anyone who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new." 

Let us revisit 2010. Binay beat Mar Roxas in the vice presidential race by a slim margin of 2% overall; and this was not due to his popularity as a politician but on account rather of having had a bailiwick to count on, which was the “Solid North”, where he ran away from Roxas by 15.5% of their total votes in this area. As in our previous opinion about this issue, the Solid North adopted him as its candidate being that he was born and raised in the Province of Isabela, predominated by Ilocanos, although he is an Ibanag and does not speak the Ilocano dialect that good. He beat Roxas resoundingly in the North by a margin that was more than their national total votes’ difference.  As we had previously thought likewise, had a credible candidate from the North been in that vice presidential race too, Binay would probably be not even thinking of running for president this time around.

The entry of Senator Marcos into the presidential race in 2016 will therefore deny Binay the Solid North support he would otherwise have under his belt as the Marcos name is still highly revered in this area. So, the simple anatomy of the race is: Binay and Cayetano will fight it out for the lead in Metro Manila. Senator Bongbong will have the Marcos loyalists and some fresh believers in his capability solidly behind him in that area. Roxas, with President Aquino's popular endorsement would naturally get a decent showing too. Marcos will have the Solid North solidly behind him, while Roxas will have the Visayas. Bongbong will get a good share of the pie in the Visayas too given his mother's coming from this area. Binay and Cayetano don't have bailiwicks to count on other than their popularity; but Marcos and Roxas are popular likewise in their own rights. 

With all due respect to Senator Cayetano, it seems that the race looms as a close contest between Marcos, Binay and Roxas. Three factors will tilt the balance of power among these three it seems: organization, money and runningmates. Binay is inviting movie actress and Batangas Gov. Vilma Santos as his running mate. Cayetano may slide down to the vice presidential slot for Roxas, and Marcos may go for Senator Escudero to run with him. 

In organization, Roxas has the edge given President Aquino's support; Binay has and still is building up his organization. Marcos has no organization yet but the Marcos loyalists are still around, ready to organize at any given time. Cayetano has no organization to speak of, but the scenario in 2010 could repeat itself if Roxas' rating does not improve on time. The DILG secretary, however, must be aware of his status this time around and it would be foolhardy at his end if he does not go the extra mile to improve his rating from here onward to the presidential campaign time. 

In terms of bailiwicks, charisma and brilliance, the Marcos-Escudero tandem stands out vis-a-vis Binay-Vilma and Roxas-Cayetano. As to Vilma, what can she offer as vice president—then as president eventually maybe? It is one thing to be governor of a province, some pundits are saying, it is another to be a vice president and be a heartbeat away from the presidency. 

Binay's politics, from what we are now viewing, is one of popularity, not of competence, that even Manny Pacquiao now owns a sure slot in his senatorial lineup. The vice president it seems wants to step up in position at all cost, even doing things that seem to be inscrutable—and, with all due respect, unacceptable.

Irrespective of his high public acceptance rating, however, Binay's candidacy will be shrouded by the stigma of his close association with some Napoles politicians, punctuated by some missteps he has created in international and national politics, missteps that are not yet served for public scrutiny at this time but will be around campaign time. The big question on Binay, performance-wise, will be what he has done as the government's housing czar to the homeless. A question that will put his political perspicacity to test, which, if he fails on, could cost him his presidential dream. 

Marcos has not officially declared his intention to run for president yet, but all indications are pointing to his running. The Solid North and the Bicol region are formidable bases to overcome by any presidential tandem against a Marcos-Escudero team. The martial law stigma—despite efforts by the late president's enemies to replant it in the political landscape—is practically gone, eroded by the incessant and speedy grinding of the wheels of corruption and crime incidences in the country nowadays. And Senator Marcos' decent public service record and dignified public comportment are solidifying his presidential chances. Escudero's erstwhile perennial enjoyment of a high public acceptance rating was somehow waylaid a bit by his girlfriend's family's public attack on his character, as buttressed by the results in the last senatorial races, but as expected too, Escudero's consistent display of his brilliance in the Senate and his oratorical prowess in his public utterances, aided by his girlfriend's family's exposed familial fallacies as well, have effectively restored at this point in time people's faith in the young senator's political competence.

Roxas, if his public rating inches a little bit, will be more of a formidable foe than Binay to Senator Bongbong. The Napoles senators are too heavy a burden for Binay to carry come 2016. Unless a miracle intervenes, or Binay publicly ditches these politicians from his circle of friends in an honest and legitimate fashion, he may still stand a chance to succeed President Aquino in 2016. For it can be argued that it was on Binay's diminishing political stature, done by his association with the Napoles politicians, that triggered Cayetano's ambitious declaration to run for president in the 2016 elections. At this stage, however, Cayetano's self-righteous stature is playing acceptably to the public's perception, but comes the real fight, in light of the absence of any substantive legislation to Cayetano's credit, the voters' attention will be more focused on Marcos, Binay and Roxas.

It puzzles the pundits though why Marcos hasn't overtly put up his own organized political machinery this time around. The better guess is that he must be busy watching his enemies destroy each other as what is going on now in the political spectrum. Napoleon Bonaparte said, "Never disturb the enemy when he is making mistakes." Is this Bongbong's marching theme onward to the Philippine presidency?