El Niño to spawn violent typhoons

El Niño to spawn violent typhoons—PAGASA

Ilocos Norte Gov. Imee Marcos checks the devasatation of supertyphoon Yolanda in Leyte (File photo)

Typhoons could become violent this year because of the El Niño weather.

El Niño doesn't mean just drought; it could bring strong tropical cyclones, said Dr. Landrico U. Dalida, Deputy Director for Operations of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

This is because hotter temperatures than normal have been observed over the Pacific, causing more evaporation and thus condensation, bringing more rains in the Central Pacific, a mix that could spawn stronger typhoons, he explained.

“Westerly winds will get stronger because of the effect of El Niño and typhoons normally tend to shift northwards, towards Northern Luzon,” he told Malaya Business Insight.

The Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly in the Central Equatorial and Eastern Pacific has been observed at .4 for over three months now, since January to April 23014. It is approaching the threshold value of 0.5 degrees Celsius of Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly. By June, it will hit .5 degrees Celsius, and that will be the onset of El Niño, Dalida said.

“After five months, by October and November, the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly is expected to be at its peak, resulting in less rainfall in the Philippines. “We expect the El Niño to last for nine months until the first quarter of 2015.”

Drought will most likely start by June, PAGASA announced in early May.

The weather will transition to El Niño in the middle of the year, said PAGASA's Thelma A. Cinco, head of PAGASA's Impact Assessment and Application Section, Climatology and Agrometreology Division, adding a “fully developed” El Niño is highly possible by December.

In the Philippines, El Niño brings dry weather and drought while La Niña means more rains, typhoons and floods.

“The termination of the northeast monsoon particularly during the last week of March signaled the start of warm and humid conditions in the country,” Cinco said.

In between, violent typhoons may occur, said Dalida. (SciPhil)

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