Our
quest for an alternative Philippine city
future continues. We will be facilitating a series of knowledge creation lab
and strategic foresight workshops for city and provincial planners in
partnership with a national government agency, a local university, a
London-based university, a global futurist organization and an international
funding agency next year. Our purpose is
to create some space for planners and decision-makers to imagine some
alternative futures and envision the preferred future for Philippines cities
with climate change, the ASEAN integration, the rise of the Asia and the recent
Asian Development Bank 2014 creativity index report in mind.
Now I would like to share
some insights that I had when I presented the output of the Laoag UNESCO
Knowledge Lab in a special session on disaster risk management and governance
innovation at the 2014 Philippine Society for Public Administration
International Conference held in Davao City last month. We had a very engaging
and interactive panel and many of our local public administration professors
and practitioners signified their interest to learn some foresight tools and
techniques used in city futures and governance studies. So far, I was able to connect with the best
urban planning and governance schools and research hubs in the Philippines
including the Philippine Local Government Academy, the UNDP, Mindanao State
University, University of the Philippines in Diliman and Mindanao, Miriam
College among others. Also, the output
of the Laoag futures literacy workshop will be featured in a book on global
anticipatory governance by UNESCO Paris. The paper version will be published in
one of the most highly citied global futures journal today.
The report version was
recently published by the University Center for Research and Development at
Northwestern University. Last semester, we just opened futures studies as a major
elective course for political science and mass communication students at
Northwestern University. The aim is to integrate anticipatory thinking,
foresight tools, creativity and innovation in political analysis and public
policy studies. I plan to develop a more “grounded” narrative foresight
approach in partnership with the University of Sunshine Coast Australia and the
University of Hawaii.
Alternative futures
So what are the signal and shifts for Philippine cities in
the twenty first century? The fact remains that low-income countries will be on
the frontline of climate change over the next 100 years.
These are some of the obvious
and emerging city scenarios for the country.
The Sick City. A spill of the urban sprawl from Manila to
the provinces is a likely future. The emergence of groceries, second-hand cars,
the spread of Manila-oriented leadership habits (trends, mainstreaming) and
priorities are my indicators. The super old urban sprawl and its multitude of
impacts is a likely future for the two hundred plus Philippine cities. The lack
of open and recreational spaces and consumption-driven local economies could
make our cities and populations less resilient and more vulnerable to climate
change impacts, disasters, poverty, inward driven commercialization among
others.
If left unchecked, secondary
cities like Laoag for example could grow into a monstrous and unprepared
megacity like Metro Manila and Baguio in 2030. Like Dagupan and Tacloban, most
of the cities in a sick city scenario are further exposed to the dangers of
natural disasters, continued economic growth, free market and globalization.
The “mayors knows best”,
“laws are mere suggestions”, “turf wars”, “finders keepers”, “an increasing
rate of cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, death and obesity” and “angry
taxpayers” is the inner story of the sick city.
The Dead City. A
city razed by supertyphoons, prolonged droughts, floods, earthquakes,
state-wide engineered corruption, economic and societal collapse. Similar to
the storyline of the World War Z without the zombie, natural disasters,
violence, lawlessness, civil riots, war, massive unemployment, and pandemics
drives the future of Philippine cities. This city would need a generation or
two to recover and rebound from natural disasters, and from psychological and
emotional trauma.
The G4 city. This is the Laoagueño version of the green resilient
eco-sustainable city. Laoag is the least vulnerable city in the Philippines
against climate change according to the latest research of the World Wildlife
Fund and the Bank of the Philippine Island Foundation. While it may be the
least vulnerable it does not mean however that Laoag is the most resilient or
the most prepared city against future climate change impacts. Laoag is
vulnerable to at least three climate exposures—El Niño, tropical cyclones, and rainfall,
river flow and flooding. The Padsan
River, a traumatized river, is an emerging threat. A Cagayan De Oro event could
happen in the future if Laoag and the province of Ilocos Norte fail to
recognize and act on this weak signal. According to the 2012 WWF study “in a
sense, Laoag defines how cities should be located in a climate defined future.”
Bayanihan City. Philippine cities get transformed by
resiliency and natural disasters. From isa
(authoritarian, isolated, hierarchic), isahan
(traditional, feudal) and naisahan
(systemically corrupt, deceptive), the city re-emerges as bayan (community, social connectedness), bayani (hero, catalyst, peer to peer, shared governance and
economy) and ani (sustainable, wealth
creator, and future generation inclusive).
An empowered, pragmatic and climate responsive city is imagined in this
scenario.
Through constant learning,
the city learns how to survive, adopt and grow amidst chronic shocks and
stresses. The city’s ability to reflect and transcend from trauma inspires the
city to have a sense of foresight, to embrace complexity and to innovate new
solutions. A strong knowledge of hazards, probabilities and impacts and
citizens and communities leading the effort is the core narrative of this
alternative future city. Governance in the bayanihan
city is peer to peer participative policy-making, project production and
decision-making. Knowledge sharing, a stronger civil society and local
movements, Wi-Fi-empowered communities, culture hacking, safety and security
concerns are priorities.
The Healthy-Interactive Living City. Unhealthy cities are socially fragmented, isolated and
marginalized. Its suburban environments, planning routines and urban designs
stimulate depression, physical and mental stress, crime and suicide. These
litanies disrupts the ‘social immune system’ and greatly affects resilience
capacities of persons, communities, organizations and cities against mega
disasters. The people’s social, emotional, physical, spiritual and mental
health is the foundation of the healthy-interactive living city. Here urban
designs, city planning and governance are sensitive to the needs of the elderly
(protecting them from heat wave, risk of ill health and death, accidents,
social isolation), children and youth (public open spaces, play in the street,
protected from long commutes and traffic, low self-esteem, lack of social
contact, depression, provide them with positive social interactions), adults (
spaces for multiple constructive experiences to occur, low risk neighborhoods,
friendly neighborhoods, maintenance of public order, community and civic life)
and the next generation. The wealth of
the city are invested on building effective and efficient ‘social networks’ and
infrastructures that promote health and encourages healthy living lifestyles
like walking, biking, running, yoga, meditation, painting, poetry, arts, tea
drinking, green gardens, etc. The extent
of investments, the use of recreational parks and other healthy living
amenities offers a snapshot on how well health-living concepts are integrated
and applied to city governance and resilience.
The low hanging fruit was the Smart city. This one is or might be architect Palafox preferred
city future. Improving the efficiency
and effectiveness of urban systems, social cohesion, innovation, data
infrastructure, land use, architecture, energy generation and use, transport,
changing values (physical, virtual, intellectual and economic) and logic drives
this future city.
“We have to be ‘smart’ enough
to see the intersection of all the drivers mentioned in the futures triangle to
create the smart city that we want” and “changing the way we live, work and
play in urban environments requires asking the unasked questions and integrate
or choose the best tools like anticipatory thinking and foresight and the
latest technology and knowledge trends to urban planning and social innovation
are crucial” in this future city.
This city highlights the
growing importance of information and communication technologies, social
infrastructure and intellectual capital to create a resilient and proactive
Philippine city. The metaphor for this city is Arangkada (moving forward fast) as this city is not only smarter
but faster. The context is
“connectivity” as a source of growth and “creativity” as a key input to
long-term and sustainable smart growth.
Emerging Issues
In Asia, it is projected that its urban population will
double from 1.6 to 3 billion by 2050. Philippine cities have to face up to this
emerging population and migration trends but how many of its cities will be
able to meet the challenge? Just imagine
the social risk and economic cost of climate change and other emerging issues
to an unprepared Philippine city.
engagedforesight.com
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